MyDD :: ge electability

ge electability

by rocky, Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:43:43 PM EST

I think the last few days have put me at ease the Obama can indeed win. I think McCain has blown his chances in the GE. I always thought that the GOP had so much at stake in the presidency(possible prison terms for some office holders) that they would run a smart campaign.
McCain had a chance to run away from Bush but he instead embraced him. I think out of Iraq in 2013 was a good attempt in trying to walk back the Bush policies. I am mystified as to the attempts to equate Iran, a developing country, with Soviet union. I doubt if any one would buy it. Hillary was right to point out that we can obliterate them. Invading and occupying a Country is different form attacking and destroying a threat it poses.
Same thing with Cuba- McCain could have taken a more moderate stance of setting up consular level ties and easier travel for Cuban Americans but is taking a dumb approach that would have worked well politically twenty years ago.
All this is on the so called area of strength for McCain.
Had McCain shut up and just quietly fund raised while making anodyne comments it would have been far harder for Obama.
I continue to believe that Hillary would beat McCain handily but am no longer convinced that Obama will lose.
I am deeply troubled by the likes of Larry Johnson who have taken stances that are disgusting. On top of the list is the trashing of a the likes of Khalidi whose only fault is that they offer a learned and authoritative scholarship on the issues affecting West Asia.

Tags: GE, Obama, McCain, Hillary (all tags)

Permalink :: 13 Comments :: Post a Comment

Presidential elections get into character (none / 0)

As long as Obama forcefully strikes back on any smears and stays on the correct side of the issues, I think he'll do fine.

Presidential elections become a referendum on the character of the two final contenders; that's why we see Republican presidents with Democratic congresses and vice versa... enough people don't necessarally think along party lines that it becomes a question of who we trust more to get the job done.

If McCain continues to look like a befuddled buffoon on all these important issues, there's no question that it's going to drive away voters presently giving him the benefit of the doubt.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:50:33 PM EST

I won't worry about the General Election (none / 0)

until next month or afterwards.

I get my hopes up too often by worrying about what happens in April and May.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:52:03 PM EST

Re: ge electability (none / 0)

Obama should be a favorite. Everything favors democrats this cycle. Its really that simple.

John McCain: Extending SCHIP would be an "unfunded liability."

by Fuzzy Dunlop on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:55:08 PM EST

Yeah don't see how any Democrat could lose. (none / 0)

McCain has become so bad, I am just scared the GOP will find a way to replace him. You don't even need to attack him, just find an old tape of him speaking out against whatever he just said.

We just need to be careful we do not do damage to ourselves and we should be fine.

Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win. ~ Sun Tzu

by Tumult on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:55:39 PM EST

Oh yeah. (none / 0)

Someone needs to do a site called McCain vs. McCain: Formidable Opponents.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:57:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ge electability (none / 0)

Absolutely. I think Senator Clinton and Senator Obama would both have been electable in this cycle. Clinton would have to have hit hard towards independents, moderates, former Republicans, etc, on showing them she actually did represent change, and the GOP energizing excitedly to fight a Clinton again, which would've been hard, but not impossible. Senator Obama obviously has his share of problems, as well, which seem to be fading as problems as time goes on. They just take different routes to do so.

Obviously, Obama's route excites me, because of how it has the potential to open up the electoral map in a way never before. What's more, he's now polling dead even in Ohio with McCain, and had a four-point jump in Florida. If Senator Clinton's supporters get onboard everywhere, I think the polls will shift dramatically in Senator Obama's direction.

Serious question- Is This Snark?

by ragekage on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:04:49 PM EST

Re: ge electability (none / 0)

I think the 2008 election will be the first election in some time that is less about swing voters and more about getting your base to the polls.

McCain depresses the Republican base.

I think Obama energizes the Democratic base (and new voters) slightly more than Clinton, and being able to vote against Senator Clinton would slightly energize the Republican base, but it won't be enough to make a difference. Both candidates would win handily. A unity ticket (though I'm still not 100% sold on the idea) would kill--I'd predict a 350+ EV victory.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:12:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ge electability (none / 0)

I'm not so sure. If Senator Clinton had become nominee, I wouldn't have been for Obama as her Veep for any reason other than, of course, I support Senator Obama. Strategically, though, I'm not sure it would've been a good idea- the same as with Senator Clinton as Veep.

What would Senator Clinton bring electorally? AR and WV are two often bandied about, but would they vote for Obama at the top of the ticket? With my personal experience in WV, I'd say a lot of Clinton supporters were voting against Obama, rather than for Clinton. Arkansas is a little different, but I don't think Clinton would help Obama take either.

Florida, now, is another opportunity, as is Ohio. Except Ohio is polling dead even with an Obama versus McCain matchup, and the most recent poll in Florida had Obama make a four-point jump, to 50-40. The crosstabs on that poll showed there was about 25% of Clinton supporters who said they'd vote McCain over Obama, but I don't think they will all defect, if many, come November if Senator Clinton's not on the ticket- which makes Obama very competitive in Florida.

What he needs to do is, as another diarist suggested, name his cabinet picks now and have them help him campaign. If he has the right mix of people, it'll help him tremendously.

Serious question- Is This Snark?

by ragekage on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:19:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ge electability (none / 0)

Again, I don't think it comes down to demographics or swing states, it comes down to turnout. An Obama/Clinton ticket would get a far greater number of Democrats excited than an Obama/somebody else ticket, I think.

Keep in mind that all of the polling you see for every state in the country judges who is a "likely voter" based on previous election history. Did they vote in 2004? Did they vote in 2000? Did they vote in the primaries/caucuses? etc. Those polls are assuming that we're going to see about the same composition of turnout in 2008 that we saw in earlier years.

That's really the only metric they have for judging who is likely to come to the polls and who isn't, of course, but I'm pretty sure we're going to see a huge shift in turnout composition this year. There will be many, many more Democrats and many fewer Republicans. There will be many more young people.

I make a gut-check prediction now: come November, we will out-perform the polls in every state by an average of 5%.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Wed May 21, 2008 at 03:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ge electability (none / 0)

Obama is losing big time to McCain in Florida. Hillary is winning against McCain in Florida. Why would the Democrats nominate someone who isn't competitive in Florida?

by karajan72 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:25:54 PM EST

Re: ge electability (none / 0)

Clinton is slipping in Washington and Oregon. Obama is handing McCain his ass in those two states. Why would the Democrats nominate someone who doesn't keep Washington and Oregon safe?

The two candidates have two different maps. And polls mean nothing this far out.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Wed May 21, 2008 at 03:07:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ge electability (none / 0)

Obama better start working harder for votes and concentrating on getting the nomination or he might find it slipping away from him. He hasn't won yet.

by karajan72 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:27:22 PM EST

Re: ge electability (none / 0)

Has anyone else noticed that the My DD electoral college map now has Clinton winning North Carolina and (and she and Obama winning Indiana)? Hahaha. If only it were so.

I don't think the potential really exists now for a Clinton/Obama "dream ticket". If Clinton somehow wrested the nomination away from him, accepting the VP slot would kill his chances to be president in the future.

He'd face a bigger "Al Gore" problem than, well, Al Gore. "Told you the fix was in--now carry my briefcase". "Yes, Ma'am".

Will never happen. He'd stay in the Senate or run for the governorship of Illinois.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Wed May 21, 2008 at 03:11:01 PM EST

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